CBN ARCHIVE - November '2001:
South Africa - November '2001 - Here lies the National Party

O, Marthinus van Schalkwyk has finally donned top hat and tails as the undertaker of the National Party. And, judging by the financially bankrupt state into which he has led his decreasing number of followers, the once mighty apartheid monolith will be buried in a pauper's grave.

How quickly it all happened. When Van Schalkwyk took over the leadership of the New National Party, it was the official opposition in Parliament with some 20% of electoral support and around a hundred MP's. Then, at the last general election, this was reduced to 28 - ten fewer than the Democratic Party and six fewer than the Inkatha Freedom Party.

The party that had governed South Africa for half a century was on its way to oblivion. In desperation, Van Schalkwyk negotiated a lifeboat from the Democratic Party - a deal for which Tony Leon fell, mesmerised by the magic of numbers that had turned him from the leader of a 2% party to the leader of the official opposition.

And now, under threat of party discipline after his puerile display of public disloyalty in the Peter Marais affair, the kortbroek leader has jumped lifeboat. Obviously he hopes a new deal with the ANC will secure him a position in government. There may even be a job for a crony or two, but don't bet on it.

>From its secure position on the gravy train, the ANC seems to assume that the Kortbroek will bring with him large numbers of loyal Nat voters. If he does, it will give new meaning to the expression "blind loyalty".

More likely, it is a heroic assumption.

I first met Marthinus in the Eighties when I was a political correspondent and he the leader of a quasi-intellectual youth movement called Jeugkrag. Its purpose seemed to be to sensitise young South Africans to the issues of the day while keeping an arm's length from the Government/Nats/Broederbond. But to a cynical hack who had lived through the Information Scandal, this was a pretty transparent subterfuge.

Clothe it in whatever euphemism you will, Marthinus was in fact an undercover agent for apartheid.

In due course he surfaced in Parliament as NP member, where he soon gatkruiped himself into pole position as FW de Klerk's blue-eyed boy. Together they got rid of chief NP negotiator and crown prince Roelf Meyer, to pave the way for Kortbroek's ascension to the leadership when FW finally retired to more Olympian pleasures.

On 12 December 1997, in an analysis of the political highlights of that year, I wrote in the financial weekly Finansies & Tegniek: "It (the departure of FW de Klerk) is not a single event that is now over and done with: the effects of his retirement will be felt until after the next election. In the larger picture, it should be seen as an important milestone in the decline of the National Party.

"Ironically enough, he left to strengthen the NP.

"The strategy was something like this: Everything the NP says or does is being neutralised by simply tarring the party with the apartheid brush. Every NP leader from the apartheid era will continue to be emasculated in this manner. But Van Schalkwyk entered parliament only in 1994; with him as its leader, the NP would finally be able to offload its apartheid baggage.

"So far, there is no indication that this strategy is working. On the contrary, at municipal level the DP is winning one seat after another from the NP. The main reason is probably the DP's better performance in Parliament - while the NP is stopping to try and offload baggage, the DP is overtaking them.

"But (in addition to that) the NP leadership has to take some of the blame. While Van Schalkwyk is a pleasant and certainly a talented man, in politics he is wearing short pants ("kortbroek"). To date he has done nothing to inspire people. And that baggage argument has not worked very well, given his background as leader of a secret project financed with taxpayers' money."

And so it has come to pass. The strategy did not work. Roelf Meyer, who at least had some gravitas, was driven out of the NP for nothing (and his abortive adventure with Bantu Holomisa in the United Democratic Movement also came to nought). Van Schalkwyk could not do the job. That was the day he got the nickname Kortbroek; 12 December 1997. It stuck, with reason.

What will happen next? At the time of writing, nothing has been finalised. The ANC may still respond to pressure from its alliance partners, Cosatu and the SA Communist Party, and decide to avoid the Kortbroek curse. Or, in a Leonesque quest for numbers, it may decide to make Van Schalkwyk a Cabinet minister or, more likely, deputy minister (which would be the equivalent of a minister in short pants).

My guess is the DA name will be retained, although some NNP support will be lost. Tony Leon will lose face, but not the leadership - after all, there are no challengers; my friend Douglas Gibson is far too loyal a man to take the gap.

At the same time, The NNP name will not be retained. What remains of the apartheid juggernaut (the rear left mudguard, more or less) will want a new start with a totally non-Nat new name. Marthinus van Schalkwyk will lose more followers, but, depending on the deal he strikes with the ANC, he will not lose the leadership; my friend Renier Schoeman is also unlikely to take the gap.

But yet another breakaway "movement" is more than likely.

My guess is that the remaining supporters of the NNP will not follow Kortbroek in large numbers. The newly named party will prove an embarrassment in the next election and its remnants will then simply merge with the ANC.

As for his current supporters, many of them will remain in the DA while most of the remainder will simply join the ANC directly, instead of supporting it by means of some kortbroek surrogate. In this, they will have the support of the Afrikaans Press - yes, the very same people who used to be the propagandists for apartheid.

And so we will bury the National Party. Please do not send flowers.