Petrol Source: Google Images

Even when we get good news regarding our fuel costs, there’s an element of dread hiding underneath the surface. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) have released their mid-month estimates with regards to the petrol price for October, and they have an optimistic viewpoint on what lies ahead.

Petrol price could go either way in October

Those using 95-grade petrol could see 24-cents-per-litre shaved off their next top-up, and those on 93 petrol can expect to save 11-cents-per-litre based on current data. However, diesel consumers could be slapped with an extra 11 cents on every litre they pump into their tanks. But the next few weeks won’t be plain sailing in the oil industry, and that has severe ramifications for South Africa.

Despite a rally from the rand against the dollar, it seems that more volatility in the Gulf could temper any potential decreases. The price of crude oil has one of the loudest says on what South Africans must pay for their petrol every month.

Latest crude oil price for Monday 16 September

A drone strike on one of Saudi Arabia’s largest oil-producing facilities has reportedly taken “5% of the global supply” off the market, with officials claiming it will “take weeks” for the site to fully recover. Around 5.7 million barrels of oil per day have been wiped from the supply chain.

Add to that the fact that Saudi politicians are already accusing Iran of orchestrating the attack, and we’ve got a geopolitical nightmare that threatens to fuel the flames of instability. In the past 48 hours, the price for a barrel of oil has jumped from $60 to $67 – a rise of more than 10%.

However, official data shows that the initial reaction to the devastating attack could have put prices 20% higher. They have somewhat stabilised, after the US agreed to release some of their own oil reserves.

The forecast petrol price for October 2019

Taking these forecasts and first estimates into account, here’s what you can expect to pay for fuel from the first week of October onwards. However, we must stress, these figures are the absolute minimum any of us can expect to pay as we wait to see the extent of the damage caused by the strike on Saudi Arabia.

Coastal

  • Petrol: R15.14
  • Diesel: R14.04

Inland

  • Petrol: R15.79
  • Diesel: R14.58