WÄRTSILÄ’S global power system modelling, published in the Crossroads to net zero report, compares two pathways from the year 2025 to 2050 with the aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming, as per the Paris Agreement targets.
In the first pathway, only renewables, such as wind and solar power, and energy storage are added to the power mix. In the second pathway, balancing power generation technologies, that can be ramped up quickly when needed to support intermittent renewables, are also added to the system.
The modelling shows that a power system including balancing power has significant advantages when it comes to both cost and CO2 reductions. The model reveals that this pathway would generate cumulative savings of €65-trillion by 2050 compared to a renewables-only pathway, due to less renewable capacity needed. This would average €2,5-trillion per year – an equivalent to over 2% of 2024’s global GDP.
Key findings
Reduced costs: The study shows that compared to a renewables and energy storage-only pathway, the deployment of balancing power plants will reduce the cost of future power systems by as much as 42%, equalling €65-trillion.
Reduced emissions: Adding balancing power can reduce the total cumulative power sector CO2 emissions between now and 2050 by 21% (19 Gt), compared to the renewables and storage-only path.
Less wasted energy: The modelling shows that the use of balancing power allows for enhanced power system optimisation, resulting in 88% less wasted energy due to renewable curtailment by 2050, compared with a renewable and energy storage-only pathway. In total, 458 000 TWh of curtailments would be avoided, enough to power the whole world with the current electricity consumption for more than 15 years.
Less renewable capacity and land needed: By adding balancing powerplants, we can halve renewable capacity and land needed to meet our decarbonisation targets.
Anders Lindberg, president Wärtsilä Energy & executive vice president, says, “While we have more renewable energy on our grids than ever before, it is not enough on its own. To achieve a clean energy future, our modelling shows that flexibility is essential.
Locally, South Africa plans to grow renewable capacity to 17,7 GW by 2030.
Wärtsilä’s analysis in the country shows that a balanced system with flexible power generation, running on gas, and energy storage is crucial to integrate this variable renewable capacity, ensuring grid stability and reliability.
Calls to action for the power sector
Decisive actions from the entire power sector are crucial to achieve a low-cost and low-emission energy transition in line with the 2050 Paris Agreement. Instead of only focusing on the acceleration of renewable build up, a holistic system level thinking must be in place when investing in and planning power systems.
Kenneth Engblom, Wärtsilä’s vice president for Africa and Europe concludes, “South Africa stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition. Eskom’s recent 3 GW GASIPPPP tender for ultra-flexible gas highlights the critical need for adaptable generation, as outlined in the report’s modelling. The choices made today will define the country’s energy future for decades, and prioritising flexible solutions from the outset is essential to maximising the potential of renewable energy investments.”
