A Red Paper is a term invented by the author. It borrows its terminology from the Green Paper (a discussion document for constructing a parliamentary bill) and its more refined subsequent document, the White Paper. The term Red Paper is used to place it in context as a discussion document, and the fact that it is extremely urgent. This Red Paper proposes a strategy to permanently mitigate the negative effects of load shedding by December 2023.
This without doubt, is a naïve and partially informed opinion regarding the specifics of engineering and politics. Its role is not to educate or build on energy and political science, but to merely introduce the concept of civenomics, and hopefully assist in addressing our most pressing issue.
The contents of the Red Paper would have been covered in the upcoming book Civenomics, South Africa’s Last Chance?’, however load shedding is the major constraint to South Africa’s growth, and in turn, negatively impacts the country’s greatest problem: unemployment. Hence this pre-emptive publication. This document is not peer-reviewed or edited and is the author’s contribution to introduce a disruptive, yet curative, lens to the problem.
Whether one observes the challenge through a management or political lens, the problem that expresses itself as load shedding cannot be dealt with by conventional means. Underlying the entire process, are deep cultural and psychosocial factors that fuel crime, corruption and the absence of accountability. We saw this in the Zuma riots of July 2021 where 354 people died. These deaths seem to have faded into obscurity, even though they are five times the amount of people that died in the Sharpville massacre, whom we mourn on the 21st March each year. Granted the cause of each death was of a different measure: democracy versus a big screen TV, but a life is a life. At least in civenomic terms.
This is not an academic paper or an analysis of the situation, and I will sometimes speak in the first person. It is a personal opinion.
What is civenomics and why is it our last chance?
Civenomics is a term invented by the author that serves as an ‘add-on’ to any
definition of economics (of which there are numerous). With my addition of the
word ‘scarce’, this description from Investopedia suffices:
Economics is a social science that focuses on the production,
distribution, and consumption of goods and services, and
analyzes the choices that individuals, businesses, governments,
and nations make to allocate [scarce] resources.
The civenomic definition would then be:
Civenomics is economics, with citizens who act to attain a
common goal for the collective good.
What are common goals and what is the collective good? Firstly we are a dreadfully divided nation, which means that the interpretation of ‘goals’ and ‘good’ would find little consensus in the country. Civenomics takes a dispassionate stance to emotions that are mired in past events – nostalgia cannot build a nation. Neither can grief, hate and a sense of self interest that has taken on such proportions in South Africa that it has a name: State Capture.
The downward spiral of South Africa’s economy shows no sign of abating. In spite of this ‘sinking ship’, there have been no attempts by government, the private sector and civil society to instill the elements required for an economic turnaround – or at least just an inflection point showing that the tide is turning. The energy crisis actually gives us that window of opportunity. As the saying goes “Never let a good crisis go to waste”.
To solve South Africa’s problems requires a new lens with which to understand the challenge, and find a practical and effective way forward, to bring the country back from what some would describe as the brink. At the moment, we are nothing short of a global embarrassment, reinforcing the stereotypical perception of South Africa being another failed state on a continent with more strife, corruption and poverty than anywhere else on earth.
The solution to our energy woes needs to be built on an understanding of the reasons why the country is mired in behaviour that can be confounding and self- destructive. It also needs to confront restitution from both ‘sides’ – those advantaged and those disadvantaged from the discrimination entrenched by apartheid. Whites who feel they “worked hard for what they have today” are misinformed, as are blacks that are of the opinion that it is time for their deep cultural norms to be put into practice so they can truly live their heritage. Although sensitive to these perspectives, civenomics says something else. It explores what equality really means to an economy, and what the needs are for a healthy and functioning society.
Africa has, in the words of Steve Biko, suffered from ‘colonization of the mind’, where whites were rulers and blacks were subjects. If we look at current optics, his perspective unfortunately still holds true. The served are mostly whites and the servers mostly black. However, colonialization is not a life sentence. Countries outside the continent of Africa, that were under colonial rule, don’t appear to have suffered the same fate. Examples include Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore – all ex-colonies that today have risen to become competitive nations in their own right. But African countries have taken a different trajectory.
South Africans, for many years, bought into the narrative that white was better than non-white. Not different – better. There was so much ‘evidence’ to support the narrative, that it was considered fact by those who benefited from it and had limited motivation to question it – lest they lose the benefits. And the reinforcement was constant. If you wanted to catch a train, you were expected to board the appropriate carriage based on your skin colour – white or non-white. Skin colour is dictated by your genes. As are your height, eye colour and numerous other observable phenotypes. Using skin colour as a discriminator made sense to the white ruling party – it allowed for visual reinforcement of the narrative – that black and white were different. In a more utopian world, it would have made sense to separate those who wanted to chat from those who preferred to travel in silence. But that would tell a different story of limited use to the government of the day.
Then in 1994, the country was given the opportunity to redress this discriminatory narrative. But unfortunately government’s inability to build a safe and productive society, merely entrenched that perception amongst those previously advantaged. They now had ‘proof’ – when the whites governed, things worked. The country did work better, but it only had to work for twenty percent of the population who were the voters. In addition, when democracy and equality for all was won in 1994, there were about 40 million people in the country. Today, we are over 60 million. Comparing this to the burden on any organisation, if your customer base increased by 50% – and most of those customers were non-revenue generating – that does not make for a healthy prognosis for even the best run private company. But that aside, there has been shoddy governance at an ethical level that can only be described as shameful. But shameful to whom?
Although the majority of people are below middle class and struggling financially, it is the small echelon at the very top that are conspicuous. Amongst that group are black professionals who have obtained their qualification in their field and can demand what professionals in their field earn. We would expect a rainbow cohort of doctors, engineers, lawyers etc to emerge in a healthy society. However, with a transition to a new dispensation, an oligarchy also arises. In the case of South Africa this would encompass the politically connected and protected who would earn handsomely irrespective of delivery and performance (other than allegiance to the gatekeepers). Included amongst the oligarchy would be the tenderpreneurs who charge criminal amounts above market value, as well as those implicated in various nefarious dealings. Many of these characters are tied to government, further entrenching the white person’s view of a stereotypical individual who has no empathy for the collective good. Whites are further confused by the fact that the marginalised black person does not bay for their blood, yet supports them. Unlike the French Revolution. What maintains this cooption? A country cannot compete on the ‘open market’ if those who are disadvantaged perpetuate their position. But they do. So what’s the problem?
When a human being is diseased, the desired initial goal is a diagnosis, for without that, no treatment can be considered effective. So what is our malady?
Dissociative Identity Disorder
South Africa suffers from dissociative identity disorder. This is a medical term previously referred to as multiple personality disorder characterized by two or more personalities within the same individual. What makes it unique is that each of these personalities differs from one another…
“… in that each presents as having its own pattern of perceiving,
relating to, and thinking about the environment and self, in short,
its own personality.”
Kaplan & Sadock
Synopsis of Psychiatry, 11th Ed.
Africa got a raw deal from the rest of the world. Black Africans were literally packed like sardines on slave ships to serve their white masters on another continent. Colonialism did its damnedest to use the African for its own aims with no regard to its impact on the people and communities on the continent. There are terrible scars that are borne to this day, impacting the psyche of anyone who is black and conscious. Or white and empathetic.
South Africa is an ex colony, but so is Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore – all considered ‘developed’ today in spite of being ravaged by colonialism in their past. Korea has an even worse history of oppression by Japan, followed by a civil war that cost millions of lives. In 1953, South Korea was equal to Ghana in wealth. In latter years, we have the following picture
GDP GDP per capita
South Korea $1 530 750 923 149 $38 824
Ghana $ 58 996 776 238 $ 4 502
South Africa $ 348 871 647 960 $13 526
Worldometer 2017
But we need to be cautious here. This is reminiscent of the ‘pull up your bootstraps’ advice we would give someone “look how hard they have it, and they succeeded”. Or the terrible advice from a parent: “Why can’t you be more like John – he doesn’t have it easy and look how well he does”. As an African, the above is therefore more a source of irritation than motivation. Yes, South Korea managed a turnaround, but we are not South Korea! So what is stopping us? As a reductionist, my remedy is somewhat succinct: we are not doing the things required for us to be competitive and successful in the modern economy. We cling to a number of social constructs that work against us – the most damaging of which is our custom of moving forward by looking back. That means colonialism, on the one hand, and the ANC on the other, are responsible for all our woes, because that is what is immediately behind us – and therefore the cause of our inertia.
Exacerbating this is…
“The need to save, plan for a distant future and to forego
today’s leisure in exchange for tomorrow’s rewards is in
conflict with the fundamental African belief that, as long as I
honour my customs, the world has more to offer me than I
need.”
Hlumelo Biko.
Africa Reimagined
Jonathan Ball Publishers
In the above paradigm, time is an abundant commodity. The Anglo Saxon maxim of ‘time is money’ has no sway. Hlumelo Biko believes that the introduction of extra-African languages, formal religion and the creation of money has disoriented Africans to follow a different path to the actual path they should be on. However, we will never know what Africa would be if it was left alone. He yearns for a meaningful cultural identity, and he is quite correct when he accuses whites of setting the terms on which race is constructed. Although it is changing, whiteness always placed itself on higher ground, from heroes in fairytales to superheroes saving the day. Even the terms ‘first world’ versus ‘developing’ assumes that everyone would want to aspire to live in a functioning economy that is efficient. Were that the case, we would expect South Africans not to ransack at the slightest provocation where the black citizen would see no irony or shame in trying to load a looted large screen TV into their Mercedes. This is not a good thing if we want to compete on the international stage (especially as a tourist destination), but what if these were good people who held a worldview that made their actions OK? After all, many people eat meat, yet others see that as murder. Smoking kills, yet people gladly work for cigarette companies. Sugar and fat are a lethal dietary combination, yet there are those who flood society with those wares. It’s all perspective.
But that is changing – society has become much more attuned to the fact that we
just happen to come in different shades. That does not mean there is no discrimination. Shorter people earn lower salaries and more attractive defendants get more lenient sentences. And blacks are often disrespected and disadvantaged. As are Jews, Hispanics and Muslims. It just depends on the setting. The reason for the tension that is present between black and white in South Africa is understandable. The whites constructed apartheid and benefited from it while blacks suffered under it. Self-identification is still largely by race, and until we can find an identity that is socially, commercially and culturally consonant with the positive traits we seek, we will always be a divided nation, confounding one another by our actions that just seem ‘wrong’. I have always believed that your past can be changed – you just have to visit it. The past events themselves can obviously not be changed, but what they mean to you today, is where that visit can add or erode your wellbeing. However, the problem we have in South Africa is that it is impossible for the past to recede into the distance if we are continually living in its negative shadow. This is not a case of ‘move on already’, but living with your past, not in your past.
Minding our step
The minders of any nation are its government ministers. Those posts went to the individuals who gave their utmost to the birth of democracy, as opposed to those who could give their utmost in their role as custodians of their portfolio. The skills and ability required to manage these crucial and high profile appointments went to those who committed to establishing the status quo of a democratic South Africa, irrespective of whether they had the skills or ability to perform the crucial tasks in their portfolios. Reward came before results. A slippery road for a country, corporation and even a household. It was less of a job to accomplish for these political appointees; more of a position to fill. The sentiment is understandable, but the results are unfortunately plain for all to see.
The next crucial layer below the ministries are the (now infamous) state owned enterprises (SOE’s). Eskom has the mandate to provide a stable platform of energy to the private sector, but instead – and like all SOE’s – suck the (remaining) taxpayer dry while delivering anything but a stable environment. The criticism of delivery by the state is a frequent activity by commentators, and with so many examples of its impact, the description of the negative situation in South Africa has become somewhat of a literary art form. Descriptions abound, but action is absent. In the (adapted) words of Longfellow the poet: “We judge ourselves by what we are capable of; others judge us by what we have done.” We have done nothing to build a unified nation – all our actions have been un-civenomic with commensurate results. The ‘we’ in this case are the people. All the people.
There are a number of laudable initiatives that address the suffering that happens down the line, but no one is doing anything to solve the problem that’s causing it. There’s a lot of describing, there’s no fixing. This statement will no doubt be met with ‘what about this?’ and ‘what about that?’. But what about it? Why is the situation not improving?
The very definition of resilience is the ability to recover quickly. It is now 25 years down the road, and we still haven’t recovered enough to work together to build a robust economy. Social engineering has never worked anywhere else, but for some reason we expect it to work here. Civenomics does not allow it. It cannot – once you move the resources to compensate for history, you automatically take on a yoke of an overburdened country that cannot be competitive on the global stage. Civenomics is the ability of citizens to play a central role that reverses the decline in a country. Civenomics is not about covering up the ugly with good deeds, empowerment of the previously dispossessed or stating false bravado such as labelling South Africans as resilient. We’re not.
We have been presented with so many societal failings, that we’ve just flipped it around for our benefit and call ourselves resilient. It makes accepting it so much easier. We are feisty when it comes to demanding better service, we are defeatists when it comes to building a resilient society. That is not to say that we cannot become victorious. To do that requires a number of steps, the first of which is to see ourselves as one – not government, not private sector, not civil society – but as a cohesive force that does the things that needs to be done to rescue a country. It’s not about patriotism – civenomics doesn’t care – it can’t read a map and doesn’t know the words to any national anthem. It is about the right thoughts with the commensurate action. It is about discomfort and sacrifice carried on a bed of optimism. The start of this optimism would be the application of civenomics to Eskom.
The Eskom Civenomics
The causes of load shedding are a mixture of poor management, disorder and
criminal incursion – driven both by the chaos within Eskom and the greater social
system that promotes disorder. An illustration of the application of civenomics to
Eskom’s turnaround, is the composition of its exco. Here we have a vastly
different executive body responsible for reversing the fortunes of the country’s
energy provider.
The members of the exco would comprise the following:
1. The unions – who may even appoint the shop stewards as their proxy. This
places the worker’s representative at the top of the organisation, and once
consensus is reached by the exco, the workers know that their interests
were taken into consideration at the very start. That is important, as the
workforce will be asked to do things they have never done before, to be
part of a collective that is literally saving the country, to be the hero of
society as opposed to one of the culprits of a bloated SOE.
2. Greenpeace. We are a fossil fuel based country with a plentiful supply of
coal. However, that is not our future. To support the global community, our
carbon emissions need to be constrained. That is where the world is headed.
However, keeping the lights on is not negotiable. Our unemployment
figures are already the worst in the world, and load shedding impacts it
directly with losses in available productive hours. Greenpeace will be on
exco to mitigate the damage from burning fossil fuels – so that, in our
enthusiasm to keep the lights on, we are made aware of entering the danger
zone of irreversible environmental damage. Renewables are the future, but
coal is our present. Although Greenpeace opposes nuclear, it may have well
been a defensible position had its proposal not been unconstitutional. But
that chance has passed us by.
3. Legal team
a) Criminal law. Criminality has been frequently cited as the factor making the process unmanageable. That is not acceptable – if we do not have prudent management driving our sole energy supplier, what hope is there? This then requires the acceptance by the legal fraternity of the concept of ‘front of the queue’. Civenomics is not about punishing anyone as a means for society to take its revenge. It is simply about a message of setting clear parameters for what will be tolerated and what will not be ignored. To do that requires that we draw a line in the sand. From a certain date, any criminal activity that affects the energy supply goes to the front of the queue. That means that the entire legal distribution chain needs to work together – once again the requirements of civenomics. Any break in the chain – and the system grinds to a halt. It is appreciated that there are individuals who have committed heinous crimes that are nothing short of treasonous, but if we focus on retrospective punishment, the system can’t function. If you commit any crime that impacts the delivery of electricity from the stipulated date, and you are found guilty, the ‘front of the queue’ scenario means you start your sentence within weeks, and will probably be out of prison before your case would have been brought to trial in the existing system. This allows for a functioning platform for consequence, and all we can do with transgressors prior to that period is make them feel uneasy – to feel that the law would catch up with them at some stage. Which it may very well do.
b) Constitutional law. This expertise will assist with implementing the civenomics principle of the removal of man-made constraints that are clearly inhibitory and do not serve a purpose due to social changes or being inconsequential in relation to the provision of stable energy. The exco does not have the power to transgress the constitution or any existing legislation. No one can break the law. However, we can address it at the highest level to create the runway we need to implement the actions required.
4. Cash Flow. In November, the managing director of transmissions, stated that the R52 billion municipal debt and could not absorb any more debt. Conventional credit management tools have not worked, and legal action affords no results – court orders are disregarded. Civenomics takes a different view. Considering the definition of the term encompassing ‘citizens who act to attain a common goal for the collective good’, the nature of community service takes on a different role. Firstly, under civenomics principles, all citizens are constantly performing community service. This disrupts the normal trade relationships that exist. When a ship is sinking – everyone helps bale. Whereas services to government were seen as a lucrative source of business, it is now seen as a responsibility. To deal with the debt, we also place a line in the sand. From a certain date, invoices to municipalities will include current outstanding only. If not settled within 60 days, service is suspended. However, just making this ‘rule’ without the necessary fundamental changes, stands little chance of success. The large consulting firms (also referred to as the ‘Big 5’) will allocate the defaulting municipalities amongst them. Their initial task will be to see that the municipality can pay its current invoices. Once this is achieved, the historical debt is then tackled. This will include negotiations with Eskom who, as the supplier, can approve payback arrangements. This should not be seen as a cost by the consulting firm, but as a duty to serve the country, because they will not be paid – not even their hard costs will be covered. It’s called serving your country. That is what it means to be a South African, and will allow companies like Bain to redeem themselves as an additional benefit. This is a crucially important aspect of a society accepting civenomics principles, and I would go so far as to say – if they don’t like it, then don’t operate in South Africa.
5. Eskom Technical. The core issue is the unavailability of megawatt hours. Although we need to see an entirely new paradigm with the somewhat unrealistic notion that we can fix this by year-end, the evidence of solving the problem essentially comes down to energy availability. This will also allow us to identify core issues, such as wet or contaminated coal, as well as putting into some quantitative perspective the contribution of problems/transgressions/omissions, so that practical constraints can be removed and novel remedies introduced. If we peruse the data that Eskom supplies online, it is just a collection of quantitative measures, providing little clarity on the way forward. Admittedly, there are factions that will go to extreme lengths to cover up their nefarious activities, however with the ‘front of the queue’ strategy, criminal acts become more expensive in the eyes of the perpetrator. Crime follows a conventional supply curve – when there is no policing or consequences, crime is seen as a more inexpensive pursuit, and more people undertake it. However, in this scenario, you are brought to book and no one is going to lose your file. Welcome to the new South Africa.
Implementation
No matter how effective a strategy may appear to be, there are too many variables in society and the economy to follow it precisely. This is, in my opinion, the major reason that strategy implementation has suffered from the stigma of failure. It is not so much the specific measures that are proposed in this document, but the introduction of a perceptual lens that allows for the construction of strategy and the implementation of its required tactics. There are a number of popular sayings that emphasise this phenomenon. In war, it is ‘no plan survives contact with the enemy’, and in sport, Mike Tyson put it succinctly: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. Things change. Everything changes. Yet we take the written document as instructions to last from one (usually annual) planning cycle to the next. I sincerely hope that this document widens the lens that we have at our disposal to not only deal with our problems, but to build South Africa into a proud and competitive nation.
About the Author
Sid Peimer is a strategist based in Cape Town. He consults, writes, trains and speaks on strategy. His consultancy, Stratplanning, provides a unique lens in many fields, covering communication, healthcare, behavioural science and management. Sid has provided solutions for both the private and public sector, as well as civil society. He is a qualified pharmacist (non-practicing) and has an MBA from UCT. He is currently writing Civenomics, South Africa’s Last Chance?
Eskom Red Paper
A civenomic approach to ending load shedding by December 2023.
Download the PDF here
